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Korean J Financ Stud > Volume 48(1); 2019 > Article
Korean Journal of Financial Studies 2019;48(1):51-72.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26845/KJFS.2019.02.48.1.51    Published online February 28, 2019.
Depositor Behavior and Failure Prediction - Evidence from Savings Banks in Korea -
Minhyuk Kim
저축은행의 예금자행태와 부실예측에 관한 실증연구
김민혁
예금보험공사
Abstract
This study contrasts ‘surviving’ and ‘failed’ savings banks regarding depositor discipline, and how each group responds to the disciplinary action of depositors. The analysis showed that deposits in surviving savings banks decreased when the banks faced higher management risks, while deposits in the failed ones increased even when the banks faced higher management risks. Uninsured deposits were more sensitive to management risks than insured deposits, and were subject to stronger depositor discipline. During the six months before the suspension of business, uninsured deposits were withdrawn at a faster pace than insured deposits. Also, failing savings banks weakened depositor discipline by aggressively pulling in insured deposits. Lastly, the results suggest that deposit variation indicators can be used as an important explanatory variable to complement existing CAEL financial factors in forecasting savings banks’ insolvency.
Key Words: 저축은행,시장규율,예금자행태,부실예측,예금보험제도,Savings Banks,Market Discipline,Depositor Behavior,Failure Prediction,Deposit Insurance
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